Diligence China

China’s age-old love affair with state owned enterprises is about to embark on a re-energized whirlwind romance.  Jilted at the altar is that home-wrecking hussy, the Privateer.  Private business, SME (small & medium sized enterprises) and of course, the foreign JVs are all suddenly left to face the cold winds of the long economic winter [...]

Just had an interesting conversation with my brother in NY.  It sheds a little light on the extreme drop in China’s export numbers.
My brother buys chemicals in China and processes them for sale to manufacturers in the US, Europe and parts of Latam.  
He tells me that Chinese suppliers have a problem.  In the run-up to [...]

Thanksgiving is a happy time – where friends and family come together to celebrate their blessings of the past year.  That’s why I want you to look at two posts now – before the holiday starts.  The good news is that the bad news is becoming clearer.  Still bleak, but what do you expect from [...]

The biggest single threat to US-Chinese relations over the next year is disengagement.   The US is going to take its eye off the ball and put the most successful international relationship of the last 100 years in jeopardy.
Bush is redefining ‘lame duck’ as he buries his head and hides from sight.  2-term presidents are all about the [...]

The statistics and trend lines have already had almost all of the impact they are going to have in the US.  My mother just told me that the recent stock market drops left her so upset that she couldn’t sleep.  When retired grandmothers on Long Island are going sleepless because of the Dow Jones Industrials, [...]

So let’s say you are a NY business owner and you’re watching demand for your services collapse around your ears.  Structurally, your company is in OK shape.  You’ve got retained earnings, your debt isn’t crazy, your spend is high but manageable.  The only problem you’ve got is that your forward cash flow is looking very, [...]

The old stories are the best stories, but sometimes you have to pull back and skip over some of the details. 5 years ago the glossy newsweeklies were gushing about a China that would leapfrog the west. Now they are talking about the China that will outlast the west. 
The engine of China’s growth is about to [...]

Look out past this week’s headlines.  Forget the statistics and details for a moment.  What are the Big Trends that we’ll all be living with for the next 10 – 15 years.  Stop fretting about the next 18 months - look at what could happen.
A Smaller, Smarter USA
The US takes its lumps.  Obama champions a [...]

No one likes the tune, but the recession song is definitely getting louder in China.  Denial is a lousy option.  If you’ve got plenty of cash and strong marketing channels, you will probably be able to take hard steps necessary to survive what could be a long, deep recession.  Not everyone will be so lucky.
One [...]

China’s leadership is waking up with a start from the nightmare of global recession.  Actually, Wen Jiao Bao and other senior policy-makers have been pretty quick to start talking-down the high-flying, lumbering 747 that is the Chinese economy.  The only ones not getting the message up until now have been the Chinese people themselves.  From Shanghai [...]